Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0e…2a0e sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,559 (-37%) realized −$28,541 · open −$1,018
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 43L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$963per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$22,720
sports 21% −$1,841
world 10% −$5,073
crypto 2% −$1,423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 39% -44.1%
≤30d 76 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 39% -44.1%
≤90d 76 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 39% -44.1%
all 76 -31.8% -38.3% 43% 39% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.3% 39% -44.1%
10% -44.2% 36% -49.5%
15% ← realistic here -49.6% 21% -54.4%
20% -54.5% 17% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,008) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$977 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$28,541
Unrealized−$1,018
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions7
Markets (closed)76 / 83
History coverage7d
Avg bet$963
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 100¢ $128 $200 +$72 (+56%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $44 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $514 $3 −$510 (-99%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-99%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$82 (-99%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 60¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,424 −$1,423 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,649 −$2,313 -63%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $105 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 −$97 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $431 −$429 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $108 +$72 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,964 −$1,950 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,164 −$2,131 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,588 +$1,387 +54%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $29 +$11 +39%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$35 +77%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $47 +$13 +28%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $936 −$931 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $400 −$379 -95%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $325 −$325 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $467 +$233 +50%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $286 +$14 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $981 +$219 +22%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $66 +$14 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $72 +$58 +81%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $32 +$8 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 +$25 +72%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $454 −$254 -56%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $152 +$48 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,444 −$2,444 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $227 +$173 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,126 +$274 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $92 +$18 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,173 −$1,473 -46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,186 +$2,154 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $107 +$93 +86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $763 −$749 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $129 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $121 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $155 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $134 2h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $45 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $336 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,348 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $68 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $1,227 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $318 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 5h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $105 7h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,149 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 0¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.22 · official $254.22 (match) · 355 history records