Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaa0e…5fed other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+9%) realized +$89 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$13
other 49% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.5% -1.0% 75% 75% +1.2%
≤30d 4 +9.5% -1.0% 75% 75% +1.2%
≤90d 4 +9.5% -1.0% 75% 75% +1.2%
all 4 +9.5% -1.0% 75% 75% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 75% +1.2%
10% -10.4% 75% -8.5%
15% -19.1% 75% -17.4%
20% -27.0% 25% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$70 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 46¢ $133 $83 −$50 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $97 +$37 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $73 −$70 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$25 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$45 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $134 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $97 22h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $73 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.70 · official $84.52 · 8 history records