Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0f…6bed world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$25
other 28% +$3
sports 19% $0
economics 10% +$8
politics 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 42 +47.2% +33.2% 24% 2% -9.7%
all 44 +45.0% +31.2% 23% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.2% 2% -9.7%
10% +18.7% 2% -18.3%
15% +7.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -3.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +91% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage124d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 88¢ $130 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $271 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $258 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $142 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $267 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $66 −$7 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $135 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $137 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$2 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $141 −$3 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $19 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $469 −$8 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $161 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $446 −$2 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $149 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $21 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $147 −$7 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $148 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $169 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $155 +$6 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $648 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $966 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $223 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $187 +$2 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $959 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $957 +$2 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $2,276 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 19 $503 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $130 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $143 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $143 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $86 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $129 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $103 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $129 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $142 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $142 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $86 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $43 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $129 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $70 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $59 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $128 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $59 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $66 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $43 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $92 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.25 · official $130.38 (match) · 212 history records