Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa11…650b sports 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-1%) realized −$351 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%311W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$27
14 days−$265
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$423
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 340 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 10% -11.0%
≤90d 340 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 10% -11.0%
all 340 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 10% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 10% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 2% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 1% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$62 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$351
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses311 / 29
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)340 / 342
History coverage18d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Alexander Zverev 95¢ 92¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Max Alcala Gurri 93¢ 88¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $42 +$2 +4%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $42 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $42 +$2 +5%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $42 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $42 +$3 +8%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $42 +$3 +6%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $42 +$2 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $42 +$3 +6%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$6 +13%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $42 +$3 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $42 +$2 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $42 +$3 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $42 +$3 +7%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$7 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $42 +$2 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$9 +21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $42 +$2 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $42 +$2 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $42 +$1 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $42 +$1 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $42 +$3 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 95¢ $42 37m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 93¢ $42 1h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 96¢ $42 2h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 99¢ $42 2h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 95¢ $42 3h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Michele Ribecai 94¢ $42 3h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 96¢ $42 4h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 93¢ $42 4h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 94¢ $42 5h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 95¢ $42 5h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 97¢ $42 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 94¢ $42 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $42 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 93¢ $42 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 96¢ $42 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 93¢ $42 15h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 94¢ $42 22h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 94¢ $42 27h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $43 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $42 34h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 96¢ $42 35h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $42 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $42 36h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $42 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $42 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 37h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $42 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $28 38h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 94¢ $42 38h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $42 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.80 · official $125.80 (match) · 695 history records