Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa14…c21c sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,497 (-2%) realized −$7,487 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate83%74W / 15L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,189per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$778est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$296
14 days+$368
30 days−$1,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$8,943
other 3% +$418
crypto 1% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.3% 88% 24% -15.0%
≤90d 89 -1.7% -11.1% 83% 13% -11.6%
all 89 -1.7% -11.1% 83% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 13% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 2% -20.0%
15% -27.3% 1% -27.7%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$5,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$1,495 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized−$7,487
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses74 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$778
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage70d
Avg bet$4,189
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $601 +$24 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,501 +$43 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $301 +$29 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,501 +$37 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 +$36 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $601 +$22 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $171 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $211 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$11 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,512 +$34 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,495 +$21 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $501 +$37 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,475 −$1,469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,609 +$326 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,370 −$1,707 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,541 +$308 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,506 +$262 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $101 +$9 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $508 −$499 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $151 +$8 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3,804 +$324 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 25 $342 −$9 -3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,880 +$120 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2,002 +$52 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $14,975 +$844 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 21 $200 +$4 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7,016 +$568 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 20 $300 +$7 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20,421 −$426 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $302 +$91 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5,010 +$366 +7%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $7,003 +$93 +1%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $3,001 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $22,627 −$2,081 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $602 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $601 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $1,501 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $200 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $301 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $1,001 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $1,501 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $601 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $53 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $5,007 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 42¢ $283 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $504 15d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $501 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,495 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.66 · official $589.66 (match) · 281 history records