Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa15…cd67 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+6%) realized +$71 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$28
other 27% +$46
sports 18% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.6% +33.6% 50% 50% +36.0%
≤30d 8 +47.6% +33.6% 50% 50% +36.0%
≤90d 30 -34.5% -40.8% 27% 27% -13.0%
all 48 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 50% +0.5%
10% -13.5% 50% -9.2%
15% -21.9% 50% -17.9%
20% -29.5% 48% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage120d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 29¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $19 +$46 +239%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 +$63 +129%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $24 +$42 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$28 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 16 $71 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 24 $105 −$104 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 24 $57 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 24 $25 +$31 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 19 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 17 $26 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 17 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 20 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 20 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 18 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 18 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 18 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 18 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$5 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $15 24m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $15 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $49 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $24 28h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $19 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN SELL 63¢ $67 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 66¢ $71 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $105 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $105 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $57 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $57 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $25 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $60 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.74 · official $176.74 (match) · 100 history records