Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa16…4283 crypto 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$691 (-8%) realized −$691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%64W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days+$238
14 days+$238
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,301
other 12% +$138
world 5% −$81
sports 1% +$68
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.0% -24.0% 37% 32% +9.3%
≤30d 23 -21.7% -29.1% 35% 30% +3.1%
≤90d 114 -19.8% -27.4% 29% 28% -21.0%
all 210 -21.7% -29.1% 30% 30% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 30% -25.1%
10% -35.9% 24% -32.3%
15% -42.1% 20% -38.8%
20% -47.8% 17% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses64 / 146
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage107d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$84 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $108 +$83 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$47 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $423 +$235 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $31 +$72 +234%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$2 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $26 +$28 +106%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $46 −$13 -28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $144 −$65 -45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $20 −$2 -8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? Apr 28 $9 +$27 +288%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $32 +$23 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 27 $24 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 27 $60 −$43 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 27 $29 +$36 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 27 $85 −$42 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 27 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 27 $57 +$74 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 27 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 26 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 26 $25 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 26 $32 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 26 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 26 $22 +$45 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 16 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 16 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 16 $136 −$16 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $301 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records