Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa19…e444 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,527 (-13%) realized −$6,454 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 63L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,611
7 days+$1,646
14 days+$1,878
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$6,928
sports 21% +$1,705
crypto 15% −$2,272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +38.3% +25.1% 60% 60% +49.9%
≤30d 47 +50.4% +36.0% 60% 60% -12.0%
≤90d 127 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 46% -23.6%
all 127 +17.1% +5.9% 50% 46% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 46% -23.6%
10% -4.2% 37% -30.9%
15% -13.4% 31% -37.6%
20% -21.9% 26% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$340 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$6,454
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage72d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No 73¢ 65¢ $562 $501 −$61 (-11%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $104 $92 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $172 +$24 +14%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $190 −$32 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $236 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$139 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$74 +58%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $291 −$222 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $226 −$98 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$73 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $209 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $43 +$168 +395%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $421 −$348 -83%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $518 +$1,748 +337%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 13 $12 −$10 -83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $57 +$45 +79%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $264 −$89 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $78 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $23 +$48 +209%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $113 +$30 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 05 $117 +$23 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $55 +$25 +45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $51 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +57%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $343 +$129 +38%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $104 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $40 +$18 +45%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 01 $22 +$4 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $116 +$40 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10PM ET May 31 $89 +$27 +30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $106 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 29 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $19 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $65 +$38 +58%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 23 $1,059 −$688 -65%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $2,051 −$276 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $169 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $123 −$116 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $1,714 −$526 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 19 $146 +$97 +66%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 17 $1,260 −$619 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 16 $89 −$31 -35%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 169.5 May 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $223 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $172 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 72¢ $159 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 51¢ $159 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 61¢ $87 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 59¢ $47 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 55¢ $56 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 73¢ $106 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 73¢ $411 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $342 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $203 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $202 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $128 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 12¢ $52 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 13¢ $77 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 SELL No 96¢ $309 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 33¢ $40 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 45¢ $18 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 33¢ $24 28h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 44¢ $39 31h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 48¢ $17 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 55¢ $15 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $2 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $15 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $9 32h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.68 · official $593.68 (match) · 832 history records