Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa1a…df7e sports 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%93W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days−$119
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +133.4% +111.2% 100% 100% +116.9%
≤30d 82 -4.0% -13.2% 30% 30% -23.3%
≤90d 335 -21.5% -29.0% 28% 27% -27.7%
all 335 -21.5% -29.0% 28% 27% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 27% -27.7%
10% -35.8% 27% -34.6%
15% -42.0% 26% -41.0%
20% -47.7% 25% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses93 / 242
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)335 / 336
History coverage78d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 52¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $7 +$8 +115%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $14 +$22 +152%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$6 -63%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $11 +$10 +89%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $7 +$4 +52%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$8 -53%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 +$35 +116%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$26 +180%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 −$10 -68%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$13 -46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$17 +111%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$28 +185%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$14 -65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$9 +62%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$11 +74%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $0 $0 +48%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $37 −$6 -16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$6 +186%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $29 −$15 -51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $18 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$16 +108%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$11 -70%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$10 -39%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $21 −$6 -28%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $19 −$5 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $28 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 46¢ $7 17h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $36 19h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 39¢ $14 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 66¢ $14 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 11¢ $4 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 28¢ $10 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $20 9d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $11 9d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $7 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 25¢ $7 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $15 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $13 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $5 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $15 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $14 10d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $9 12d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $15 12d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 14¢ $5 12d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 40¢ $15 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $30 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $15 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $64 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $30 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 1¢ $1 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 25¢ $9 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 14¢ $5 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 31¢ $15 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 39¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 647 history records