Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa1d…0eac other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$327 (-14%) realized −$322 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate13%10W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$130
14 days−$193
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$153
world 14% −$22
tech 11% −$22
politics 10% −$32
finance 5% −$8
sports 5% −$60
economics 2% −$7
culture 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -18.6% -26.4% 8% 2% -20.2%
≤30d 79 -19.9% -27.5% 13% 1% -22.4%
≤90d 79 -19.9% -27.5% 13% 1% -22.4%
all 79 -19.9% -27.5% 13% 1% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 1% -22.4%
10% -34.5% 1% -29.8%
15% -40.8% 1% -36.6%
20% -46.6% 1% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses10 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage24d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 70¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 67¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat? No 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -73%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $28 −$9 -34%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on Jun 16 $96 −$4 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Jun 15 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 15 $41 −$5 -13%
Will Orleans Brandão win the Governor of Maranhão election? Jun 15 $44 −$5 -10%
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? Jun 15 $35 −$7 -20%
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $44 −$19 -43%
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup Jun 15 $42 −$6 -13%
Will Gen.G make a roster change before July? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$9 -81%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $16 −$6 -39%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $36 −$9 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B Jun 13 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? Jun 13 $0 $0 -3%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$25 +101%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$8 -25%
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $40 −$4 -9%
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary elec Jun 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$8 -20%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$4 -16%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.15B? Jun 11 $40 −$3 -7%
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 10 $19 −$10 -51%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Jun 09 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 07 $40 −$5 -12%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 07 $23 −$2 -10%
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 05 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 05 $34 −$20 -60%
Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30? Jun 05 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tenness Jun 05 $9 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $3 1h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 10h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 15h
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? SELL No 5¢ $2 21h
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 21h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? SELL No 96¢ $48 21h
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 24h
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 25h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? BUY No 97¢ $48 26h
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $3 29h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 33h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 37h
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 37h
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 37h
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 BUY Yes 8¢ $4 39h
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 44h
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 44h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on SELL No 92¢ $52 46h
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 46h
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? SELL No 4¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.15 · official $27.15 (match) · 255 history records