Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
AA 0xaa1f…b8fe crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,422 (+17%) realized +$2,422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%85W / 53L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$1,512
14 days+$1,651
30 days+$1,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 57% +4.2%
≤30d 119 +27.8% +15.6% 61% 55% +1.2%
≤90d 138 +26.0% +14.0% 62% 55% +2.5%
all 138 +26.0% +14.0% 62% 55% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 55% +2.5%
10% +3.1% 50% -7.3%
15% -6.9% 42% -16.3%
20% -16.0% 35% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$78 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses85 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage44d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $117 +$83 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $119 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$17 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$56 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$34 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $132 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$99 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$83 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$206 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $110 +$90 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $316 +$284 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$173 +632%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$87 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$72 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $326 +$174 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $507 +$293 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $339 +$260 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $165 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $634 +$301 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $145 +$55 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$195 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $510 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 913 history records