Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa22…2303 weather 970 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$635 (-0%) realized −$635 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate73%731W / 265L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days−$357
14 days−$388
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$511
crypto 0% +$26
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -54.6% -58.9% 45% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 157 -18.9% -26.7% 71% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 687 -8.3% -17.0% 71% 10% -10.4%
all 996 -2.7% -11.9% 73% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 12% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 8% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$635
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses731 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)996 / 970
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 996 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 29? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 30? Jun 27 $20 −$27 -137%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 29? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 30? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on May 29? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -102%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 30? Jun 27 $20 −$27 -134%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 24? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 30? Jun 27 $12 −$27 -228%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 24? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 30? Jun 27 $8 −$27 -338%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 29? Jun 27 $13 −$27 -211%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 29? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on May 30? Jun 27 $11 −$27 -255%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 30? Jun 27 $23 −$27 -120%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 27? Jun 27 $165 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 27? Jun 27 $138 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,034 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,091 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $401 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $174 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $165 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $281 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $825 −$14 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $492 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $165 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $29 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $290 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $61 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,034 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $392 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $699 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $435 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $165 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $170 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $207 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $492 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $807 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 2¢ $3 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3484 history records