Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa29…5c13 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+4%) realized +$77 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$104
sports 42% +$83
world 6% +$18
crypto 1% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +22.4% +10.7% 23% 23% -6.1%
≤30d 77 +22.4% +10.7% 23% 23% -6.1%
≤90d 77 +22.4% +10.7% 23% 23% -6.1%
all 77 +22.4% +10.7% 23% 23% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 23% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 22% -15.1%
15% -9.6% 19% -23.3%
20% -18.4% 16% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$17 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 59
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$7 -43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $108 +$36 +33%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$43 +199%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$60 -60%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$22 -50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$23 +113%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$27 +27%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$108 +526%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $21 +$179 +874%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$171 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$59 -58%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 +$181 +884%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 −$13 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$29 +36%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 +$146 +712%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$78 +1521%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 41m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 43m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 28¢ $9 50m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $144 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $68 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.45 · official $110.89 · 130 history records