Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa2d…8045 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
politics 31% −$11
sports 14% −$5
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 120 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage137d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $431 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $468 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 22h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 46h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 28d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $234 28d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $234 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $214 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $238 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $238 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 33d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $243 33d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $243 33d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $262 33d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $262 35d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $243 35d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $243 35d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.89 · official $105.89 (match) · 345 history records