Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa2e…9d98 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$394 (-16%) realized −$496 · open +$102
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$313
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -23.5% -30.8% 57% 43% -25.8%
≤30d 46 -23.5% -30.8% 57% 43% -25.8%
≤90d 46 -23.5% -30.8% 57% 43% -25.8%
all 46 -23.5% -30.8% 57% 43% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 43% -25.8%
10% -37.4% 33% -32.9%
15% -43.5% 20% -39.3%
20% -49.0% 17% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$44 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 52¢ 100¢ $50 $96 +$46 (+92%)
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ 76¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Arribage/Olivetti 61¢ 64¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$14 -14%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 19 $50 +$11 +23%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $50 +$11 +23%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu Jun 19 $51 +$42 +83%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Hugo Car Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Hardt (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Abbagnato (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Zach Stephens Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Arribage/Olivetti 61¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 52¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 57¢ $51 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 3h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 4h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $51 5h
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 81¢ $50 7h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 25¢ $36 9h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ $50 11h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 11h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 54¢ $51 13h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $51 15h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ $50 15h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $50 17h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 23h
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris BUY Ozan Baris 86¢ $50 25h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao BUY Yushan Shao $9 25h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 26h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $50 28h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 34¢ $51 28h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 82¢ $50 29h
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio BUY Victoria Bosio 83¢ $50 32h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 33h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 33h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $50 34h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 38h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 39h
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi BUY Marie Vogt 78¢ $50 41h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $50 42h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto BUY Andrew Fenty 91¢ $50 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.09 · official $302.09 (match) · 80 history records