Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa2e…c38d politics 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$226 (-43%) realized −$208 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$59
14 days−$239
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$245
sports 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -86.4% -87.7% 0% 0% -87.3%
≤30d 6 -29.8% -36.5% 17% 17% -53.8%
≤90d 6 -29.8% -36.5% 17% 17% -53.8%
all 6 -29.8% -36.5% 17% 17% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 17% -53.8%
10% -42.6% 17% -58.2%
15% -48.1% 17% -62.3%
20% -53.2% 17% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$52 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $38 −$32 -83%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $30 −$27 -90%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $21 −$12 -57%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $108 −$61 -57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $276 −$129 -47%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $14 +$22 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $5 39h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $8 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $8 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $8 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $30 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $22 7d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $16 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $11 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.04 · official $17.38 (match) · 48 history records