Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa32…99a6 crypto 555 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%177W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$102
other 8% −$30
world 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -29.3% -36.0% 39% 26% -21.2%
≤30d 46 -37.0% -43.0% 37% 26% -25.7%
≤90d 303 -12.6% -20.9% 36% 34% -19.2%
all 552 -16.1% -24.1% 32% 30% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 30% -12.6%
10% -31.4% 28% -21.0%
15% -38.0% 27% -28.6%
20% -44.1% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses177 / 375
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)552 / 555
History coverage506d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $22 +$7 +30%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -45%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $11 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -79%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -79%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -11%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +101%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 50¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.12 · official $64.13 (match) · 2155 history records