Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaa32…a296 crypto 1715 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$300 (-3%) realized −$274 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%871W / 751L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$90
14 days+$79
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$126
finance 6% +$17
other 3% −$26
tech 1% −$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 +3.7% -6.1% 95% 22% -7.8%
≤30d 642 +0.1% -9.5% 70% 34% -8.4%
≤90d 1622 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 39% -10.5%
all 1622 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 39% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 37% -19.1%
15% -29.4% 35% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized−$274
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses871 / 751
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions50
Markets (closed)1622 / 1715
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 1622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? No 98¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? No 90¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Up 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? No 96¢ 95¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? No 96¢ 72¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-24%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Up 95¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? No 96¢ 93¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Up 92¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Up 91¢ 88¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? No 92¢ 84¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-9%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Up 78¢ 74¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 94¢ 69¢ $28 $21 −$7 (-26%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 15? No 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Up 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$10 -80%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$25 -89%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -78%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$27 -91%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 8-14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $65 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 8-14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 14? Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +20%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $11 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? SELL No 18¢ $3 7m
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 10¢ $1 8m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? SELL No 19¢ $3 8m
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 11¢ $1 10m
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 11¢ $1 11m
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? SELL No 9¢ $2 12m
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? SELL No 9¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $10 17m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $14 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 18m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 19m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 19m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 19m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $14 19m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $14 19m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 96¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $15 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $14 21m
BNB Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $14 21m
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $30 21m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $5 21m
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $15 21m
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 87¢ $13 22m
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $28 23m
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 85¢ $13 23m
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 86¢ $13 23m
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 84¢ $13 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.38 · official $1,024.76 (match) · 3500 history records