Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa34…523a politics 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$940 (+0%) realized +$940 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,314per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$52
politics 38% −$91
sports 14% +$963
world 4% −$6
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 87 +0.5% -9.0% 6% 3% -8.4%
all 148 -4.5% -13.6% 13% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 10% -9.1%
10% -21.8% 10% -17.8%
15% -29.4% 9% -25.7%
20% -36.3% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,745) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$13 · ×10.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized+$940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,314
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $755 $755 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $327 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $1,994 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $2,448 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $758 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,123 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,183 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $1,105 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,582 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,043 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,676 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $80 +$63 +79%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,121 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,632 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,062 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,703 −$3 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,592 −$3 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,297 −$3 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $1,301 +$1,796 +138%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,710 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $755 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $757 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $758 4h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 5h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 6h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $649 47h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $650 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $756 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $638 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $639 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $511 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $512 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $712 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $713 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $763 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $765 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $763 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $765 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $765 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 10d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $326 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,078 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,085 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.10 · official $1,081.10 (match) · 484 history records