Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa36…a4b4 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$584 (+1%) realized +$558 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 24L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$88
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$731
politics 15% +$20
other 7% −$168
finance 6% +$14
world 4% −$173
sports 3% +$59
tech 2% +$16
economics 2% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 0% -34.3%
≤30d 11 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 5% -11.0%
all 81 -5.2% -14.2% 70% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 19% -8.5%
10% -22.4% 10% -17.3%
15% -29.9% 6% -25.2%
20% -36.8% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$880) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$103 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$1,330
Realized+$558
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)81 / 92
History coverage591d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $614 $642 +$27 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $188 $191 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $139 $135 −$4 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Jun 21 $146 −$93 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $119 +$7 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,693 +$40 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $294 +$4 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 01 $96 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $191 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1,319 +$17 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? May 03 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 02 $90 +$2 +2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $77 +$32 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 23 $1,081 +$3 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 23 $143 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $180 −$176 -98%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,475 +$9 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 04 $164 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $1,351 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $283 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $670 +$48 +7%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $57 +$12 +20%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jan 16 $68 −$48 -70%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 7? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 3? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $484 +$30 +6%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Jan 14 $619 −$22 -4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $849 +$51 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $979 +$16 +2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Dec 22 $380 +$77 +20%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Dec 21 $198 +$4 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Dec 02 $381 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 02 $487 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 13 $500 +$2 +0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Aug 31 $534 +$63 +12%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025? Aug 07 $787 +$59 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 23 $1,501 +$34 +2%
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days? May 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 19 $100 +$86 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15? Jan 19 $200 +$63 +32%
Will Siqi Chen refund >$500,000 in $ZERO losses? Jan 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 02 $2,104 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 23 $658 −$555 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $284 1h
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $125 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $48 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $140 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $472 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 9d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $635 11d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $440 13d
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $385 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 19d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $177 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,330.22 · official $1,330.22 (match) · 665 history records