Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa38…bc31 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$182 (+49%) realized +$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$200
sports 5% +$8
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +21.1% +9.5% 40% 32% +51.5%
≤30d 28 +20.7% +9.2% 39% 32% +50.2%
≤90d 32 +9.7% -0.8% 38% 31% +42.4%
all 32 +9.7% -0.8% 38% 31% +42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 31% +42.4%
10% -10.3% 28% +28.8%
15% -18.9% 22% +16.3%
20% -26.9% 16% +4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×5.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage72d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +307%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 +$252 +1106%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 +$2 +224%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 $0 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$4 +70%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1 $0 -7%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 42m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 59m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $13 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL No 86¢ $44 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 96¢ $50 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 11h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 99¢ $275 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.81 · official $29.81 (match) · 52 history records