Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3b…d93a world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 18% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 10% -8.8%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 7% -9.2%
all 41 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage487d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $64 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $4 $0 +8%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n May 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 30 $9 $0 +1%
Israel retaliates against Houthis before May? Apr 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $8 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Apr 26 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $12 $0 -1%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $23 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $7 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $34 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.69 · official $33.69 (match) · 183 history records