Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3c…40e5 crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$231
other 6% +$134
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 32% -16.6%
≤30d 69 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 32% -16.6%
≤90d 69 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 32% -16.6%
all 69 -29.3% -36.0% 38% 32% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 32% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 30% -24.6%
15% -47.8% 25% -31.9%
20% -52.9% 20% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$30 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records