Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa3c…3111
crypto · 448 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$3,474 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,178 · open −$4,360
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,808
Realized−$6,178
Unrealized−$4,360
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses268 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions4
Markets (closed)444 / 448
History coverage156d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 444 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,809
7 days−$8,435
14 days−$6,178
30 days−$6,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 26¢ $7,000 $3,737 −$3,263 (-47%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Curaçao 52¢ 40¢ $3,000 $2,351 −$649 (-22%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 32¢ 25¢ $2,160 $1,704 −$456 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 45¢ 94¢ $8 $16 +$9 (+110%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$71 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$32 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$38 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$33 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,092 +$6,174 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,471 −$1,032 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $93 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $97 +$128 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$36 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$4,556
other 16% −$13,172
sports 16% +$9,835
tech 11% −$2,645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 9m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $3,043 19m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1,018 19m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1,018 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 54m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $2 57m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $13 59m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $135 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $29 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5,066 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 52% -13.2%
≤30d 444 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 54% -11.9%
≤90d 444 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 54% -11.9%
all 444 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 54% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 54% -11.9%
10% -14.9% 46% -20.3%
15% -23.2% 38% -28.0%
20% -30.7% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,807.84 · official $7,805.95 (match) · 2307 history records