Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa3d…03c2 weather 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%17W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% $0
weather 4% +$1
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 19 +0.4% -9.2% 89% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×14.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×127.1 per $1 lost it wins $127.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses17 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage187d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on April 15? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 30? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 12? Jun 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 27? Mar 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 14 Mar 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on March 7? Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 3? Mar 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Jan 27 $1,697 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Jan 27 $4,219 $0 -0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will DramaBox - Stream Drama Shorts be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $41 31d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $49 79d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $25 90d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $24 95d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 97d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 14 BUY No 100¢ $34 107d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $39 109d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 113d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $150 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $486 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $512 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $124 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $424 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $15 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $599 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $969 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $229 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $699 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $654 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $643 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $412 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1,647 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $576 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.11 (match) · 58 history records