Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3e…dd2a crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$966 (-8%) realized −$966 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%81W / 38L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days−$546
14 days−$1,113
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$114
sports 41% −$999
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.8% -13.8% 78% 44% -19.2%
≤30d 119 -9.9% -18.5% 68% 38% -17.7%
≤90d 119 -9.9% -18.5% 68% 38% -17.7%
all 119 -9.9% -18.5% 68% 38% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 38% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 24% -25.6%
15% -33.4% 13% -32.8%
20% -39.9% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$57 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$966
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses81 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage11d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $239 +$23 +10%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $226 +$13 +6%
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $183 +$38 +20%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $185 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +26%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $144 +$40 +28%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $244 +$46 +19%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $54 +$6 +11%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $81 +$11 +14%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $79 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $785 −$785 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $500 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $633 +$150 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $151 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $676 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $665 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $64 −$59 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $614 −$279 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $283 +$27 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $260 +$22 +8%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $47 +$30 +64%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $411 −$245 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $219 +$71 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 100¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 97¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $263 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 91¢ $64 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 91¢ $132 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 91¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $239 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 96¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 94¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 94¢ $204 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 94¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 83¢ $140 12h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 83¢ $10 12h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 83¢ $10 12h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 83¢ $20 12h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 83¢ $4 12h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Nightblood Gaming 99¢ $187 12h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 98¢ $185 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 13h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner SELL BESTIA 100¢ $184 13h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 78¢ $105 13h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 78¢ $38 13h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 97¢ $145 13h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 98¢ $147 13h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 90¢ $13 13h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 90¢ $54 13h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 90¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 569 history records