Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3e…7de5 other 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-20%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
sports 36% +$5
crypto 15% −$3
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.2% -39.6% 21% 21% -34.1%
≤30d 14 -33.2% -39.6% 21% 21% -34.1%
≤90d 14 -33.2% -39.6% 21% 21% -34.1%
all 14 -33.2% -39.6% 21% 21% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 21% -34.1%
10% -45.4% 21% -40.4%
15% -50.7% 21% -46.1%
20% -55.5% 21% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$3 +132%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 21 history records