Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa40…978c crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 153d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$49
crypto 47% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 53% -1.5%
≤30d 19 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 53% -1.5%
≤90d 19 +10.8% +0.3% 100% 53% -1.5%
all 20 +9.2% -1.2% 95% 50% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 50% -15.6%
10% -10.6% 5% -23.7%
15% -19.3% 0% -31.1%
20% -27.2% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$49 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage153d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 27 $234 −$49 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 18h
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 1¢ $20 150d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 31¢ $46 151d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? SELL No 38¢ $46 151d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 34¢ $41 151d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? SELL No 35¢ $42 152d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 32¢ $38 152d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? SELL No 37¢ $34 152d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 33¢ $30 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records