Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa42…f9e9 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$6
other 7% +$1
politics 3% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 8% -11.5%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 23 +0.1% -9.5% 48% 4% -10.1%
all 37 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage455d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 −$10 -26%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $70 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 29 $9 $0 +3%
Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $30 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 39h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records