Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa44…945d crypto 1304 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$477 (+4%) realized +$490 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%487W / 831L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$393
7 days−$393
14 days−$2,300
30 days−$2,021
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$835
finance 0% +$12
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -28.2% -35.0% 31% 30% -33.0%
≤30d 804 -23.8% -31.1% 31% 30% -37.0%
≤90d 1318 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 36% -20.8%
all 1318 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 36% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 36% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 35% -28.4%
15% -34.8% 34% -35.3%
20% -41.2% 32% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$490
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses487 / 831
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1318 / 1304
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 27¢ 8¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$7 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.74 · official $25.46 · 3500 history records