Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa45…83f5 crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-4%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%123W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$81
sports 3% +$2
other 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 132 -4.0% -13.1% 93% 1% -13.6%
≤90d 132 -4.0% -13.1% 93% 1% -13.6%
all 132 -4.0% -13.1% 93% 1% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 1% -13.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -21.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -29.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses123 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Spread: Bolivia (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records