Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa46…f4f4 crypto 885 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%860W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$61
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 520 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 885 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -9.6%
all 885 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$64 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses860 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 885
History coverage58d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1777 history records