Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa49…d53e other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-5%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$62
other 42% +$109
politics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 47% -1.1%
≤30d 15 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 47% -1.1%
≤90d 15 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 47% -1.1%
all 15 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 47% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 47% -1.1%
10% -10.8% 47% -10.6%
15% -19.4% 40% -19.2%
20% -27.3% 33% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$75 +262%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$22 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28 +$9 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $60 −$29 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 11 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 27m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $58 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $35 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $28 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 56¢ $29 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 50¢ $29 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL No 32¢ $12 6d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 6d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY No 37¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records