Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa4c…7bfd sports 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,732 (-1%) realized −$751 · open −$981
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%64W / 168L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,027per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$2,519est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$2,141
crypto 23% −$4,242
other 18% −$7,610
world 16% −$1,499
politics 2% +$50
tech 0% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +28.8% +16.5% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤30d 170 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 29% -11.3%
≤90d 232 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 26% -14.7%
all 232 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 26% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 26% -14.7%
10% -20.7% 26% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 25% -30.3%
20% -35.4% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$1,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,334 vs −$566 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3,916
Realized−$751
Unrealized−$981
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses64 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$2,519
Open positions2
Markets (closed)232 / 235
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1,027
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3,466 $3,439 −$26 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,431 $476 −$955 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $510 +$572 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $413 −$387 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $415 −$406 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $205 +$979 +478%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $154 +$1,440 +935%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $187 +$443 +237%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $674 −$230 -34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $725 −$210 -29%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$392 +77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $637 +$539 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$34 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 +$515 +103%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $189 +$519 +274%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $314 −$306 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $79 −$77 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,316 −$804 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $393 −$384 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $548 −$393 -72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,287 −$1,271 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $96 −$93 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,198 −$1,181 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $493 +$1,161 +235%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $887 +$881 +99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$22 -11%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 −$98 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $97 −$94 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $683 −$420 -62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $387 +$352 +91%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $380 +$655 +172%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $253 +$207 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $502 −$496 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $338 −$330 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $303 +$331 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 +$200 +206%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $113 +$187 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $488 +$538 +110%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $87 −$83 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $137 −$130 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $454 −$231 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $576 −$543 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $534 −$503 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $172 −$161 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $424 +$1,168 +275%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $80 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,024 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 84¢ $449 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 84¢ $449 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $185 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $13 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $43 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $11 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $11 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $59 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $107 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 38¢ $313 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $478 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 37¢ $197 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $27 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 4¢ $107 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $332 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $91 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $90 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $324 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $326 21h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY 7¢ $83 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $797 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $630 38h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 10¢ $103 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,915.50 · official $3,915.50 (match) · 2094 history records