Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaa4f…b174 sports 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$481 (+1%) realized +$1,026 · open −$545
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate66%244W / 127L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$372
world 30% +$798
other 14% +$70
sports 10% −$240
crypto 6% +$80
economics 3% −$5
tech 2% −$308
finance 1% +$3
weather 0% +$2
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 37% -4.8%
≤30d 217 +1.1% -8.5% 61% 29% -8.5%
≤90d 371 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 22% -7.7%
all 371 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 22% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 22% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 16% -16.6%
15% -26.9% 13% -24.6%
20% -34.1% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,428
Realized+$1,026
Unrealized−$545
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses244 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions24
Markets (closed)371 / 395
History coverage79d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $256 $250 −$6 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 63¢ 100¢ $57 $90 +$34 (+59%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $35 $70 +$35 (+98%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 100¢ $14 $30 +$16 (+115%)
Will OpenAI raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? Yes 70¢ 20¢ $71 $20 −$51 (-71%)
Will OpenAI raise at least $100B in its IPO? Yes 63¢ 20¢ $65 $20 −$44 (-69%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 55¢ 100¢ $10 $19 +$8 (+83%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 60¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+66%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $300 $12 −$288 (-96%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Under 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+60%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Los Angeles Angels 24¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+316%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 39¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+156%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 49¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+101%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 73¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $35 $1 −$35 (-98%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $95 −$11 -11%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $26 −$5 -17%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $26 −$16 -60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 −$10 -43%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $48 −$24 -49%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 21 $12 −$1 -9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $8 −$3 -35%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 −$1 -19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $6 −$1 -12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 −$1 -10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $15 −$5 -35%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $12 −$2 -14%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 21 $11 +$2 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $15 −$2 -13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $18 −$3 -16%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $135 −$72 -53%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $162 −$37 -23%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $17 −$3 -17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $21 −$4 -19%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $14 −$10 -72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 +$4 +73%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +108%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 174.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +163%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 21 $6 +$7 +113%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 21 $9 +$9 +96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 +$9 +174%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 21 $13 +$2 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +47%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 −$1 -22%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $13 −$8 -62%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 +$2 +40%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 +$4 +36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $24 −$4 -17%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 21 $4 +$11 +241%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $24 −$1 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $47 −$12 -26%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $200 +$16 +8%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $24 +$6 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 10m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $2 19m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $3 19m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $4 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $4 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $4 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 22¢ $1 20m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 22m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 22m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 60¢ $3 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $2 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $3 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $4 23m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $6 23m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $8 27m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $3 27m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 16¢ $1 28m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 83¢ $4 29m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 29m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 34¢ $0 30m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 30m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $4 31m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $1 32m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $3 32m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 26¢ $1 35m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $2 35m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 39m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $4 41m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.45 · official $1,428.20 (match) · 3040 history records