Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa50…6aa7 crypto 735 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,145 (-9%) realized −$2,145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%433W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$369
30 days−$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,868
sports 37% −$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -74.2%
≤30d 64 -28.6% -35.4% 45% 41% -37.4%
≤90d 171 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 37% -36.0%
all 735 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 44% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -19.2%
10% -27.1% 30% -26.9%
15% -34.1% 17% -34.0%
20% -40.6% 11% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses433 / 302
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)735 / 735
History coverage141d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 735 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $156 −$38 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$12 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $209 −$54 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $105 +$58 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $210 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $72 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $161 +$52 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $53 +$138 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $66 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $54 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $56 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $65 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1910 history records