Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa51…6199
crypto · 1682 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$463 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$326 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$287
Realized−$326
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1087 / 523
Open positions60
Markets (closed)1610 / 1682
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day115.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 60 History 1610 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$652
7 days−$222
14 days−$239
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 69¢ 94¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 59¢ 82¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 64¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 72¢ 94¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 78¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? No 76¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 77¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 80¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 77¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? No 73¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 75¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 79¢ 91¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 76¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? No 72¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 77¢ 85¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 79¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? No 77¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 62¢ 65¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 65¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 72¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? No 72¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 57¢ 59¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? No 62¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$3 -4129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% +$190
weather 38% +$202
other 9% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 78¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL No 98¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 71¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 57¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 77¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $11 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $5 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $5 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 652 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 55% -14.7%
≤30d 1610 -3.3% -12.5% 68% 55% -12.1%
≤90d 1610 -3.3% -12.5% 68% 55% -12.1%
all 1610 -3.3% -12.5% 68% 55% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover115.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 55% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -20.5%
15% -28.5% 25% -28.2%
20% -35.5% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.74 · official $286.80 (match) · 3500 history records