Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa55…04c3 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$6
other 39% −$2
sports 17% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.3% +3.4% 100% 100% +3.4%
≤30d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 14% -7.1%
≤90d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 14% -7.1%
all 22 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 5% -8.7%
10% -27.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -34.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -40.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage466d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $4 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $7 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $37 5h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $40 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $27 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 18d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 187d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $9 360d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 382d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $9 396d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 396d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes $0 396d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes $0 397d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes $0 397d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes $0 397d
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? SELL Yes $2 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records