Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa57…4f9d sports 30 markets active 8d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$882 (-8%) realized −$882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$957
other 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 +58.7% +43.6% 63% 60% -17.6%
≤90d 30 +58.7% +43.6% 63% 60% -17.6%
all 30 +58.7% +43.6% 63% 60% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.6% 60% -17.6%
10% +29.8% 57% -25.5%
15% +17.3% 50% -32.7%
20% +5.8% 40% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +114% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$297 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $14 −$13 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $548 −$542 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $243 +$312 +128%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $127 +$119 +93%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 +$49 +60%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $57 +$24 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,273 −$2,261 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,846 +$474 +26%
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $47 −$35 -74%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,739 +$110 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$53 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,283 +$420 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,010 +$158 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 +$51 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$41 +139%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$28 +1115%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $97 +$40 +41%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$113 +149%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $128 −$127 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $130 −$2 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $49 +$189 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $74 +$98 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$26 +53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $34 +$15 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$20 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $14 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $548 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $555 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $243 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $246 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $127 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $129 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $80 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $81 9d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $57 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,273 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,319 9d
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego SELL Sonego 12¢ $12 9d
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 45¢ $47 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,846 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,848 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,739 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $97 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,702 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,283 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,169 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $121 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,010 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $70 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 10d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records