Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa59…09fe weather 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-14%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%162W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$24
14 days−$78
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$92
crypto 36% −$49
sports 1% +$1
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 30% -32.7%
≤30d 211 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 26% -27.7%
≤90d 399 -19.5% -27.2% 41% 32% -25.5%
all 399 -19.5% -27.2% 41% 32% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 32% -25.5%
10% -34.1% 23% -32.6%
15% -40.5% 18% -39.1%
20% -46.3% 13% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses162 / 237
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +157%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$3 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 +$5 +1318%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1248 history records