Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5a…c23c world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$2
other 15% +$1
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 32 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage474d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $46 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $31 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $79 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $26 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $44 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $6 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -53%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.80 · official $49.80 (match) · 111 history records