Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5c…a240 weather 773 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$134 (-0%) realized −$80 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate82%633W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day55.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$711
14 days−$541
30 days−$767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$473
world 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$19
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 30% -24.2%
≤30d 222 +0.4% -9.1% 65% 36% -13.8%
≤90d 768 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 15% -10.4%
all 768 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 15% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 15% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 7% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 4% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses633 / 135
Open positions5
Markets (closed)768 / 773
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day55.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+160%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$27 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$8 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$78 +780%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 −$69 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$10 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$15 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $133 +$62 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $216 +$27 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $46 −$15 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $233 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 −$20 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $287 +$117 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $88 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $144 −$127 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $91 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $538 −$538 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$155 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $136 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $226 −$209 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.85 · official $125.85 (match) · 3500 history records