Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AA 0xaa5d…7e90 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$424 (+3%) realized +$426 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$789per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$98est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,233

7 days+$1,133

14 days+$209

30 days+$209

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+20.1%	+8.6%	75%	75%	+21.2%
≤30d	5	-3.9%	-13.1%	60%	60%	-5.1%
≤90d	9	-24.7%	-31.9%	44%	44%	-24.6%
all	16	-9.6%	-18.2%	50%	50%	-7.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.2%	50%	-7.1%
10%	-26.1%	50%	-16.0%
15%	-33.2%	44%	-24.1%
20%	-39.8%	44%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$665 vs −$621 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$294

Realized+$426

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Est. fees paid−$98

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage104d

Avg bet$789

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$297	$294	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$2,701	+$827	+31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$336	+$266	+79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$197	+$139	+70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 12	$937	−$923	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Apr 24	$516	−$516	-100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels	Apr 22	$1,465	+$1,421	+97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Apr 12	$2,498	−$2,465	-99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik	Apr 10	$128	−$124	-97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$1,392	+$816	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Mar 18	$799	+$595	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Mar 18	$250	−$246	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Mar 18	$100	−$100	-100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14?	Mar 14	$491	−$491	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Mar 10	$400	+$627	+157%
Knicks vs. Clippers	Mar 10	$801	+$630	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$299	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	76¢	$4	25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	76¢	$2,697	25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$336	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$197	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY New York Yankees	50¢	$3	9d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY New York Yankees	50¢	$934	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$516	58d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	50¢	$1,465	61d
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	56¢	$2,498	70d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik	BUY Alexander Bublik	10¢	$128	73d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,208	95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$1,392	95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$1,394	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$799	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$250	96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$100	96d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14?	BUY Yes	54¢	$491	99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$1,027	104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$400	104d
Knicks vs. Clippers	BUY Clippers	56¢	$801	104d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.37 · official $294.37 (match) · 28 history records