Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaa5e…1468 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,702 (-4%) realized −$4,702 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%92W / 110L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1,231est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,705
7 days+$597
14 days−$4,958
30 days−$6,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$6,518
other 13% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% +2.6%
≤30d 73 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 42% -22.2%
≤90d 202 -5.3% -14.4% 46% 45% -13.5%
all 202 -5.3% -14.4% 46% 45% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -13.5%
10% -22.5% 45% -21.8%
15% -30.0% 42% -29.4%
20% -36.9% 37% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$708) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$448 vs −$434 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,702
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses92 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage88d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $1,400 +$1,529 +109%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $551 +$240 +44%
Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs Millennium Esports (+1.5) Jun 26 $65 −$64 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $145 −$144 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $51 +$18 +35%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $1,130 −$1,120 -99%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $540 +$175 +32%
ITF Claremont: Jacob Brumm vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 24 $320 −$76 -24%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $45 +$53 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 23 $230 −$14 -6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 20 $1,600 −$1,584 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $600 +$299 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,590 −$1,563 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $890 −$877 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $650 +$420 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,000 +$416 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $740 −$230 -31%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $250 +$29 +12%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $330 −$327 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $600 −$590 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $370 −$365 -99%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $950 −$745 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $600 −$110 -18%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $365 −$19 -5%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $290 −$287 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $800 +$365 +46%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $355 −$347 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $880 +$592 +67%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $50 +$48 +97%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $400 −$394 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,459 +$1,711 +70%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $708 −$708 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $340 +$387 +114%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $250 −$247 -99%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $550 +$386 +70%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $398 −$394 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $229 −$226 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 09 $250 −$246 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,000 +$500 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $45 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,000 −$1,976 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $355 +$271 +76%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $580 +$460 +79%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $370 +$193 +52%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $250 +$131 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,000 +$570 +57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $280 −$275 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $2,929 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 47¢ $1,400 17h
Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs Millennium Esports (+1.5) BUY Millennium Esports 52¢ $65 47h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $549 2d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY SaD Esports 71¢ $145 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 93¢ $70 2d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $100 2d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $1,030 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $51 3d
ITF Claremont: Jacob Brumm vs Vignesh Gogineni BUY Vignesh Gogineni 65¢ $320 3d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 75¢ $540 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 45¢ $45 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino SELL Andrea Pellegrino 39¢ $216 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 40¢ $230 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $1,600 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $899 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $600 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $500 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $600 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $490 8d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $890 8d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $650 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 70¢ $1,000 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $740 9d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) SELL TDK 53¢ $279 10d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 46¢ $250 10d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $330 10d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $600 11d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $370 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records