Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5e…2901 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$24
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% −$20
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +189.0% +161.5% 29% 29% -8.5%
≤30d 18 +70.2% +54.0% 17% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 49 +18.1% +6.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
all 49 +18.1% +6.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 16% -10.4%
10% -3.4% 8% -19.0%
15% -12.7% 6% -26.8%
20% -21.3% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage88d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $398 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $164 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $563 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$5 +42%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $209 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $339 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $7 −$3 -36%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $119 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $18 −$18 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $12 +$2 +14%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $7 +$2 +29%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $6 +$1 +11%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $5 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 29 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 24h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 15d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 15d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.73 · official $99.73 (match) · 186 history records