Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa61…51cc politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 129L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 40% −$18
sports 6% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 127 -3.4% -12.6% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 142 -4.0% -13.2% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage115d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $261 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $492 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $261 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $198 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $454 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $447 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $276 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $257 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $485 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $41 3h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $41 5h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 15h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 39h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 403 history records