Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa61…7f3b sports 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$347 (-3%) realized −$399 · open +$52
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%110W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$47
crypto 24% −$334
other 16% +$90
finance 4% −$40
politics 3% −$42
weather 1% −$37
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -45.7%
≤30d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -45.7%
≤90d 15 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 40% -20.4%
all 199 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 32% -11.8%
10% -21.1% 30% -20.2%
15% -28.7% 29% -27.9%
20% -35.7% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$45 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$991
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses110 / 89
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions10
Markets (closed)199 / 209
History coverage182d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $282 $291 +$9 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $186 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $49 $92 +$43 (+89%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 77¢ 78¢ $77 $78 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5) PortlandFire 48¢ 50¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Indiana Fever 51¢ 39¢ $51 $39 −$12 (-24%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) Washington Mystics 53¢ 97¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 24 $52 +$48 +93%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Jun 23 $116 −$115 -99%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5 Apr 03 $108 +$89 +83%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 02 $96 −$95 -98%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5) Apr 02 $92 −$91 -98%
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) Apr 02 $104 −$103 -99%
Spread: 76ers (-15.5) Apr 02 $92 +$105 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Apr 02 $102 +$95 +93%
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) Apr 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Apr 01 $94 +$103 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 01 $104 +$93 +90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $195 +$5 +2%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Apr 01 $108 −$107 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29? Mar 29 $186 −$37 -20%
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) Mar 26 $98 +$102 +104%
Spread: Lakers (-10.5) Mar 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Mar 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-12.5) Mar 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5 Mar 25 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Mar 24 $102 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Mar 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Mar 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Mar 24 $106 +$94 +89%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $106 +$94 +89%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-4.5) Mar 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Mar 22 $48 +$52 +108%
Spread: Clippers (-6.5) Mar 22 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rupert Murdoch be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by Fe Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Mar 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Mar 21 $46 +$54 +117%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Mar 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-4.5) Mar 20 $45 +$55 +122%
Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5 Mar 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) Mar 19 $42 +$58 +138%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Mar 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) Mar 19 $48 +$52 +108%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Mar 19 $54 +$46 +85%
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Wizards (-2.5) Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Akamai Technologies (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 17m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 22m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 25m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 27m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 29m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 31m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 34m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 36m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 38m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 39m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 41m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 44¢ $45 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $49 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $7 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 53¢ $50 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $52 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 77¢ $78 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 51¢ $116 26h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY New York Liberty 51¢ $52 26h
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $55 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes $26 50d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5 BUY Under 54¢ $108 83d
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) BUY Suns 48¢ $96 83d
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5) BUY Pelicans 46¢ $92 83d
Spread: Clippers (-1.5) BUY Clippers 52¢ $104 83d
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) BUY Magic 54¢ $73 84d
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) BUY Magic 54¢ $1 84d
Spread: Hawks (-3.5) BUY Magic 54¢ $33 84d
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) BUY Heat 54¢ $108 84d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $102 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.06 · official $991.06 (match) · 672 history records