Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa61…8f1e sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$33
finance 17% −$20
economics 10% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +17.6% +6.4% 60% 60% -2.0%
all 7 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 43% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 43% -13.4%
10% -20.3% 29% -21.7%
15% -28.0% 29% -29.2%
20% -35.1% 29% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage230d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $17 +$13 +76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $44 +$6 +13%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 11 $38 −$37 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 27? Apr 27 $100 −$20 -20%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 27 $50 +$59 +119%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $60 −$30 -50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $100 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $167 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $17 31d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $44 32d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 37¢ $38 39d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 27? SELL Yes 40¢ $80 52d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 27? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 52d
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season BUY MVK Esports 45¢ $50 53d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 72¢ $43 218d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL Gen.G 76¢ $52 229d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY Gen.G 73¢ $50 229d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL Gen.G 72¢ $41 229d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY Gen.G 87¢ $50 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.26 · official $164.26 (match) · 18 history records