Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa61…8f6b crypto 503 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,241 (+10%) realized +$1,241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%209W / 294L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$1,108
14 days+$1,278
30 days+$1,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% +10.3%
≤30d 461 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 42% +2.0%
≤90d 503 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 41% +1.5%
all 503 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 41% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 41% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -8.2%
15% -27.5% 34% -17.1%
20% -34.6% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses209 / 294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 503
History coverage33d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (273 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $131 +$109 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$44 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $68 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $69 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$168 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$153 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$35 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $91 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$147 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$153 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $88 +$152 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $134 +$166 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $64 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$44 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$59 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 983 history records