Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa63…d0d8 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$2
other 28% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage86d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $106 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $102 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $104 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $104 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 22d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 28d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $104 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 32d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $104 33d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $104 34d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 35d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 36d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $105 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $105 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $106 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $106 67d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 73d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 74d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 80d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 80d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $106 85d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $106 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records